Year 10
$12.5B
Annual Revenue
+450% from Year 5
EBITDA
$9.1B
Annual Profit
73% Margin
Returns
35.4%
Internal IRR
25% Min. Target
Payback
4.2
Years
Industry: 6–8 years
Revenue Growth Projection
Revenue Breakdown (Year 10)
Cash Flow Analysis (20-Year Projection)
Phase 1: Foundation
- Investment$5.0B
- Timeline2025–2027
- Early Revenue$200M
- ROI StartYear 3
Phase 2: Development
- Investment$5.0B
- Timeline2028–2030
- Revenue Acceleration$2.5B
- Break-evenYear 5
Phase 3: Optimization
- Investment$5.0B
- Timeline2031–2033
- Peak Revenue$12.5B
- Max ROIYear 8+
20-Year Financial Model Summary
Year | Revenue ($M) | EBITDA ($M) | CAPEX ($M) | FCF ($M) | Cumulative FCF ($M) | ROI (%) |
---|
Sensitivity Analysis
Bull Case (25% prob.)
Peak Revenue:
$18.2B
IRR:
45.3%
Valuation:
$180B
Payback:
3.1 years
Base Case (50% prob.)
Peak Revenue:
$12.5B
IRR:
35.4%
Valuation:
$120B
Payback:
4.2 years
Bear Case (25% prob.)
Peak Revenue:
$8.1B
IRR:
22.7%
Valuation:
$75B
Payback:
6.3 years
Valuation Multiples
Comparables: Disney (15.2×), Las Vegas Sands (12.8×), Universal (14.6×)
Soulution Target: 12–15× Revenue Multiple
Key Investment Metrics & Assumptions
Revenue Assumptions
- Accommodation: $2,000–$10,000/night
- Healing Services: $500–$5,000/session
- Corporate Retreats: $50,000/group
- Research Licensing: $200 M/year
- Capacity: 50,000 daily visitors
- Occupancy: 75% average
Cost Structure
- Operating Costs: 25% of revenue
- Staff Costs: 15% of revenue
- Marketing: 5% of revenue
- Maintenance: 3% of revenue
- Insurance: 2% of revenue
- EBITDA Margin: 70%+
Market Assumptions
- Wellness Market: 15% CAGR
- Luxury Tourism: 12% CAGR
- MENA Growth: 25% CAGR
- Pricing Growth: 5% annually
- Market Share: 0.5% by Year 10
- Competition: Minimal direct
Exit Strategy & Return Scenarios
IPO Scenario (Yr 7–10)
- Valuation Range:$80–120B
- Revenue Multiple:12–15×
- Public Float:25–30%
- Investor Returns:5.3–8.0×
Strategic Sale (Yr 5–8)
- Potential Buyers:Disney, Universal
- Strategic Premium:20–40%
- Synergy Value:$10–20B
- Investor Returns:4.2–6.8×
Dividend Strategy (Yr 5+)
- Annual Dividends:$2–4B
- Yield on Cost:15–25%
- Payback:4–6 years
- Plus Asset Value:Infinite